Brent’s graph of doom

The graph below looks quite complicated but is the result of some sophisticated modelling in studying adult social care pressures in Brent. It looks at the impact on Brent Council’s budget because of adult social care pressures.

 

Brent GOD

The headline bars that provide concern are the sky blue trend line and the green trend line. It shows the actual budget gap as we move towards 2020.

Brent is impacted more than other boroughs through central Government funding cuts because 80% of our funding is sourced from them. The sky blue line projects the spending gap if the next Comprehensive Spending Review is as harsh to Brent Council as the one supported and voted for by Sarah Teather in 2010.

The green line predicates the budget gap without central government cuts and just  looking at demand and other cost changes.

The sky blue trend line shows that rising demand for care along with budgets cuts could create a gap of £45 million in Brent Council’s budget by 2020.

Without fundamental change in the way social care services are delivered and how Councils are funded, local authorities will be finding themselves calling on Government to remove statutory obligations from them so that we can stop providing certain services altogether. The Local Government Association says that funding for services such as libraries and leisure centres will fall by 90% as a result of rising adult social care and other compulsory costs, meaning many could disappear by the end of the decade.

Yesterday I blogged about Labour’s landmark process for health and social care reform introducing Whole Person Care  – LINK

Labour is working on practical solutions to the care ticking bomb crisis.

 

 

 

Barnet ‘Graph of Doom’

Recent projections are showing a worrying picture for local government in the future. Let me introduce you to the Barnet ‘Graph of Doom’.

It is projected that if cuts continue the way that they are going at the moment and factoring in the demographic changes with people living longer, all that Councils will be doing in the future is looking after the most vulnerable in society.

Without fundamental reform, Brent and other Councils will simply have to totally stop providing some services full stop. We will no longer be able to provide all our statutory obligations. Without fundamental reform in funding formulas, Councils will at some stage in the future be writing to Central Government, requesting to remove some statutory obligations.

The Guardian writes that in relation to Barnet (but this does apply to Councils like Brent too) that they “will be unable to provide any services except adult social care and children’s services. No libraries, no parks, no leisure centres – not even bin collections.